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Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock
Warten auf die Energiekrise: Europa und die USA am Vorabend des ersten Ölschocks
[journal article]
Abstract A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close
to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? T... view more
A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close
to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? To answer this, I examine the degree of awareness in Europe and the United States of the three possible triggering factors: Egypt’s disposition to start a war and enlist the support of oil-producers; the Arab interest in oil conservation and long-term income maximization; and the imbalance in the oil market and the delayed adjustment of oil prices. For each of these topics, I set out both what was expected and what was actually in the offing; the information available to Western analysts and that unknown; the communication noises and the flagrant bias. The conclusion pays tribute to three men – James Akins, Pierre Wack, and Ted Newland – who had guessed what was coming ahead, and explains why their predictions almost succeeded, while others failed.... view less
Keywords
price; natural resources; crude oil; pressure-group politics; Europe; energy policy; energy supply; Arab countries; energy production; crisis; market; United States of America
Classification
Special areas of Departmental Policy
General History
International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy
Free Keywords
information asymmetry
Document language
English
Publication Year
2014
Page/Pages
p. 70-93
Journal
Historical Social Research, 39 (2014) 4
Issue topic
The energy crises of the 1970s
DOI
https://doi.org/10.12759/hsr.39.2014.4.70-93
ISSN
0172-6404
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed