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Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock
Warten auf die Energiekrise: Europa und die USA am Vorabend des ersten Ölschocks
[Zeitschriftenartikel]
Abstract A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close
to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? T... mehr
A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close
to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? To answer this, I examine the degree of awareness in Europe and the United States of the three possible triggering factors: Egypt’s disposition to start a war and enlist the support of oil-producers; the Arab interest in oil conservation and long-term income maximization; and the imbalance in the oil market and the delayed adjustment of oil prices. For each of these topics, I set out both what was expected and what was actually in the offing; the information available to Western analysts and that unknown; the communication noises and the flagrant bias. The conclusion pays tribute to three men – James Akins, Pierre Wack, and Ted Newland – who had guessed what was coming ahead, and explains why their predictions almost succeeded, while others failed.... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Erdöl; Energieversorgung; Krise; Interessenpolitik; Energiepolitik; natürliche Ressourcen; Markt; Preis; Energieerzeugung; USA; Europa; arabische Länder
Klassifikation
spezielle Ressortpolitik
allgemeine Geschichte
internationale Beziehungen, Entwicklungspolitik
Freie Schlagwörter
information asymmetry
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2014
Seitenangabe
S. 70-93
Zeitschriftentitel
Historical Social Research, 39 (2014) 4
Heftthema
The energy crises of the 1970s
DOI
https://doi.org/10.12759/hsr.39.2014.4.70-93
ISSN
0172-6404
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)