Ten Things to Watch in Africa in 2025

Abstract

While economic activity in Africa is set to accelerate in 2025, dissatisfaction with governments is likely to persist. Incumbents will feel pressure via the ballot box and youth protests, and conflict risks remain high. The relative decline of EU influence is prone to continue as the EU's Global Gateway Initiative is yet to deliver. We present a selection of "ten things to watch in Africa" in 2025. Politics: Prospects for democracy remain mixed. The coup wave waned in 2024, and electoral turnover at the ballot box has become more frequent. Formerly popular liberation movements will remain under pressure. However, elections scheduled for 2025 in Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Tanzania, and Gabon are not expected to result in democratic change even though the use of digital technologies promises to reduce the possibility of fraud. Peace and security: Dissatisfaction with civilian governments can fuel conflict. Jihadism in the wider Sahel, Horn of Africa, and beyond is likely to further intensify and spread. Secessionist conflicts pose latent and manifest risks in Cameroon, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, and elsewhere. Youth protests are expected to continue across the region. International arena: Regional integration in West Africa has suffered a severe setback. At the same time, an isolationalist and transactional US Africa policy under Trump could further reduce "Western" influence. Germany and the EU seek to make "better offers" than contenders such as China and Russia, as security and migration remain important issues for their Africa policies.