dc.contributor.author | Kayser, Mark Andreas | de |
dc.contributor.author | Leininger, Arndt | de |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-02-05T15:47:40Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-02-05T15:47:40Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2017 | de |
dc.identifier.issn | 1537-5935 | de |
dc.identifier.uri | https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/71439 | |
dc.description.abstract | When elections are distant, polls are poor predictors. Too few voters are paying attention and too much can change before election day. Structural models can establish baseline expectations but suffer from high uncertainty and underspecification imposed by small samples. We present an early forecast of the 2017 Bundestag election results for individual parties that leverages economic and political data as well as state parliament (Landtag)
election results in the German states (Länder) to sidestep these shortcomings. A linear random effectst model provides our estimates. Länder elections are dispersed over the calendar and offer the advantage of capturing both actual voter preferences and new political issues. We argue that this approach offers a promising method for early forecasts when polls are not informative. | de |
dc.language | en | de |
dc.subject.ddc | Politikwissenschaft | de |
dc.subject.ddc | Political science | en |
dc.title | A Länder-based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election | en |
dc.title.alternative | Eine länderbasierte Prognose zur Bundestagswahl 2017 | de |
dc.description.review | begutachtet (peer reviewed) | de |
dc.description.review | peer reviewed | en |
dc.source.journal | PS: political science & politics | |
dc.source.volume | 50 | de |
dc.publisher.country | USA | |
dc.source.issue | 3 | de |
dc.subject.classoz | Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture | en |
dc.subject.classoz | politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | Bundesrepublik Deutschland | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | prognosis | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | voting behavior | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | party | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | preference | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | election to the Bundestag | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Prognose | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wahlverhalten | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | Federal Republic of Germany | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Partei | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wahlergebnis | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | Bundestagswahl | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | Präferenz | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | election result | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | election research | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Landtagswahl | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | election to the Landtag | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wahlforschung | de |
dc.identifier.urn | urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-71439-0 | |
dc.rights.licence | Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung | de |
dc.rights.licence | Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications | en |
ssoar.contributor.institution | Freie Universität Berlin | de |
internal.status | formal und inhaltlich fertig erschlossen | de |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10061173 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10037571 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10050584 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10040137 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10036432 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10054152 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10054727 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10036000 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10061867 | |
dc.type.stock | article | de |
dc.type.document | journal article | en |
dc.type.document | Zeitschriftenartikel | de |
dc.source.pageinfo | 689-692 | de |
internal.identifier.classoz | 10504 | |
internal.identifier.journal | 1072 | |
internal.identifier.document | 32 | |
internal.identifier.ddc | 320 | |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1017/s1049096517000427 | de |
dc.description.pubstatus | Preprint | de |
dc.description.pubstatus | Preprint | en |
internal.identifier.licence | 3 | |
internal.identifier.pubstatus | 3 | |
internal.identifier.review | 1 | |