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A Länder-based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election
Eine länderbasierte Prognose zur Bundestagswahl 2017
[journal article]
Abstract When elections are distant, polls are poor predictors. Too few voters are paying attention and too much can change before election day. Structural models can establish baseline expectations but suffer from high uncertainty and underspecification imposed by small samples. We present an early forecast... view more
When elections are distant, polls are poor predictors. Too few voters are paying attention and too much can change before election day. Structural models can establish baseline expectations but suffer from high uncertainty and underspecification imposed by small samples. We present an early forecast of the 2017 Bundestag election results for individual parties that leverages economic and political data as well as state parliament (Landtag)
election results in the German states (Länder) to sidestep these shortcomings. A linear random effectst model provides our estimates. Länder elections are dispersed over the calendar and offer the advantage of capturing both actual voter preferences and new political issues. We argue that this approach offers a promising method for early forecasts when polls are not informative.... view less
Keywords
prognosis; voting behavior; party; preference; election to the Bundestag; Federal Republic of Germany; election result; election research; election to the Landtag
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Document language
English
Publication Year
2017
Page/Pages
p. 689-692
Journal
PS: political science & politics, 50 (2017) 3
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1017/s1049096517000427
ISSN
1537-5935
Status
Preprint; peer reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications