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A Länder-based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election
Eine länderbasierte Prognose zur Bundestagswahl 2017
[Zeitschriftenartikel]
Abstract When elections are distant, polls are poor predictors. Too few voters are paying attention and too much can change before election day. Structural models can establish baseline expectations but suffer from high uncertainty and underspecification imposed by small samples. We present an early forecast... mehr
When elections are distant, polls are poor predictors. Too few voters are paying attention and too much can change before election day. Structural models can establish baseline expectations but suffer from high uncertainty and underspecification imposed by small samples. We present an early forecast of the 2017 Bundestag election results for individual parties that leverages economic and political data as well as state parliament (Landtag)
election results in the German states (Länder) to sidestep these shortcomings. A linear random effectst model provides our estimates. Länder elections are dispersed over the calendar and offer the advantage of capturing both actual voter preferences and new political issues. We argue that this approach offers a promising method for early forecasts when polls are not informative.... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Prognose; Wahlverhalten; Partei; Wahlergebnis; Bundestagswahl; Präferenz; Landtagswahl; Wahlforschung
Klassifikation
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2017
Seitenangabe
S. 689-692
Zeitschriftentitel
PS: political science & politics, 50 (2017) 3
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1017/s1049096517000427
ISSN
1537-5935
Status
Preprint; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz
Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung