Diese Seite wird derzeit technisch überarbeitet. Es kann dabei vorübergehend zu längeren Ladezeiten kommen. Wir bitten, eventuelle Unannehmlichkeiten zu entschuldigen und danken für Ihr Verständnis.
Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy
[journal article]
dc.contributor.author | Sohlberg, Jacob | de |
dc.contributor.author | Branham, J. Alexander | de |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-01-06T12:56:41Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-01-06T12:56:41Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | de |
dc.identifier.issn | 2296-4754 | de |
dc.identifier.uri | https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/71117 | |
dc.description.abstract | Although polling accuracy increases throughout the election, polls are always at least a little wrong on election day. In this article, we attempt to understand how characteristics of particular elections may make them harder (or easier) to predict. In particular, we focus on estimating the impact of voter turnout, electoral change, and vote buying on polling error. We find support for two of the three hypotheses. There is little evidence that voter turnout affects polling error. However, polling errors tend to be higher where there have been large changes in parties’ vote share from the previous election. We also find that higher prevalence of vote buying may be associated with larger polling errors. | de |
dc.language | en | de |
dc.subject.ddc | Politikwissenschaft | de |
dc.subject.ddc | Political science | en |
dc.subject.ddc | Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie | de |
dc.subject.ddc | Social sciences, sociology, anthropology | en |
dc.subject.other | electoral change; polling context; turnout; vote buying; voting behaviour | de |
dc.title | Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy | de |
dc.description.review | begutachtet (peer reviewed) | de |
dc.description.review | peer reviewed | en |
dc.source.journal | Survey Methods: Insights from the Field | |
dc.publisher.country | DEU | |
dc.subject.classoz | politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur | de |
dc.subject.classoz | Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture | en |
dc.subject.classoz | Erhebungstechniken und Analysetechniken der Sozialwissenschaften | de |
dc.subject.classoz | Methods and Techniques of Data Collection and Data Analysis, Statistical Methods, Computer Methods | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wahlbeteiligung | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | voter turnout | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wahlverhalten | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | voting behavior | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wechselwähler | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | en: floating voter oder swing voter? | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Prognose | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | prognosis | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wahlforschung | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | election research | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | internationaler Vergleich | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | international comparison | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wahlergebnis | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | election result | en |
dc.rights.licence | Creative Commons - Namensnennung 4.0 | de |
dc.rights.licence | Creative Commons - Attribution 4.0 | en |
internal.status | noch nicht fertig erschlossen | de |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10038845 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10061173 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10072162 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10036432 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10054727 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10047775 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10061867 | |
dc.type.stock | article | de |
dc.type.document | Zeitschriftenartikel | de |
dc.type.document | journal article | en |
dc.source.pageinfo | 1-17 | de |
internal.identifier.classoz | 10504 | |
internal.identifier.classoz | 10105 | |
internal.identifier.journal | 472 | |
internal.identifier.document | 32 | |
internal.identifier.ddc | 320 | |
internal.identifier.ddc | 300 | |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.13094/SMIF-2020-00013 | de |
dc.description.pubstatus | Veröffentlichungsversion | de |
dc.description.pubstatus | Published Version | en |
internal.identifier.licence | 16 | |
internal.identifier.pubstatus | 1 | |
internal.identifier.review | 1 | |
internal.pdf.wellformed | true | |
internal.pdf.encrypted | false | |
ssoar.urn.registration | false | de |
Files in this item
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
-
Erhebungstechniken und Analysetechniken der Sozialwissenschaften
Methods and Techniques of Data Collection and Data Analysis, Statistical Methods, Computer Methods -
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture