Download full text
(external source)
Citation Suggestion
Please use the following Persistent Identifier (PID) to cite this document:
https://doi.org/10.13094/SMIF-2020-00013
Exports for your reference manager
Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy
[journal article]
Abstract Although polling accuracy increases throughout the election, polls are always at least a little wrong
on election day. In this article, we attempt to understand how characteristics of particular elections
may make them harder (or easier) to predict. In particular, we focus on estimating the impact... view more
Although polling accuracy increases throughout the election, polls are always at least a little wrong
on election day. In this article, we attempt to understand how characteristics of particular elections
may make them harder (or easier) to predict. In particular, we focus on estimating the impact of
voter turnout, electoral change, and vote buying on polling error. We find support for two of the
three hypotheses. There is little evidence that voter turnout affects polling error. However, polling
errors tend to be higher where there have been large changes in parties’ vote share from the
previous election. We also find that higher prevalence of vote buying may be associated with
larger polling errors.... view less
Keywords
voter turnout; voting behavior; en: floating voter oder swing voter?; prognosis; election research; international comparison; election result
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Methods and Techniques of Data Collection and Data Analysis, Statistical Methods, Computer Methods
Free Keywords
electoral change; polling context; turnout; vote buying; voting behaviour
Document language
English
Publication Year
2020
Page/Pages
p. 1-17
Journal
Survey Methods: Insights from the Field (2020)
ISSN
2296-4754
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed