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Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy
[Zeitschriftenartikel]
Abstract Although polling accuracy increases throughout the election, polls are always at least a little wrong
on election day. In this article, we attempt to understand how characteristics of particular elections
may make them harder (or easier) to predict. In particular, we focus on estimating the impact... mehr
Although polling accuracy increases throughout the election, polls are always at least a little wrong
on election day. In this article, we attempt to understand how characteristics of particular elections
may make them harder (or easier) to predict. In particular, we focus on estimating the impact of
voter turnout, electoral change, and vote buying on polling error. We find support for two of the
three hypotheses. There is little evidence that voter turnout affects polling error. However, polling
errors tend to be higher where there have been large changes in parties’ vote share from the
previous election. We also find that higher prevalence of vote buying may be associated with
larger polling errors.... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Wahlbeteiligung; Wahlverhalten; Wechselwähler; Prognose; Wahlforschung; internationaler Vergleich; Wahlergebnis
Klassifikation
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Erhebungstechniken und Analysetechniken der Sozialwissenschaften
Freie Schlagwörter
electoral change; polling context; turnout; vote buying; voting behaviour
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2020
Seitenangabe
S. 1-17
Zeitschriftentitel
Survey Methods: Insights from the Field (2020)
ISSN
2296-4754
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)