The 2023 Israeli-Palestinian War: A Gift to China

Abstract

China is not actively intensifying, perpetuating, or resolving the current Israeli–Palestinian war. Yet, the country is gradually becoming a (if not, the) strategic beneficiary of this war. Both geoeconomically and geopolitically, the war undermines the US's and EU's efforts to compete with China in the Global South, Indo-Pacific, and West Asia (or, the Middle East). Geoeconomically: The war impedes the prospects of the EU's Global Gateway and IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor) and US-driven I2U2 (India-Israel-UAE-USA). These counter-Belt and Road Initiative corridors hinge on the success of Arab–Israeli normalisation processes, which are set back by this war. Geopolitically: For the West, this war is another strategic challenge - like the Ukraine War. It distracts policymakers from the the EU's and US's China/Indo-Pacific policies. The war is also seriously undermining the West as the self-proclaimed upholder of the "rules-based order." War scenarios: 1. Protracted stalemate. 2. Broadened regional conflict. 3. A decisive victory. 4. A ceasefire. Implications: Scenarios 1 and 2 do not bode well for the West. Scenario 2 even has the potential to become what Barrack Obama called the 2003 invasion of Iraq, a "dumb war" with disastrous consequences. A decisive victory is unlikely for both sides; most wars in this region end not with a bang but a whimper. Pushing for a decisive Israeli victory could see the West mired in scenarios 1 or 2. The longer this war continues and the broader it gets, the bigger a gift it will be to China.