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The 2023 Israeli-Palestinian War: A Gift to China
[Arbeitspapier]
Körperschaftlicher Herausgeber
German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) - Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien, Institut für Nahost-Studien
Abstract China is not actively intensifying, perpetuating, or resolving the current Israeli–Palestinian war. Yet, the country is gradually becoming a (if not, the) strategic beneficiary of this war. Both geoeconomically and geopolitically, the war undermines the US's and EU's efforts to compete with China in... mehr
China is not actively intensifying, perpetuating, or resolving the current Israeli–Palestinian war. Yet, the country is gradually becoming a (if not, the) strategic beneficiary of this war. Both geoeconomically and geopolitically, the war undermines the US's and EU's efforts to compete with China in the Global South, Indo-Pacific, and West Asia (or, the Middle East). Geoeconomically: The war impedes the prospects of the EU's Global Gateway and IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor) and US-driven I2U2 (India-Israel-UAE-USA). These counter-Belt and Road Initiative corridors hinge on the success of Arab–Israeli normalisation processes, which are set back by this war. Geopolitically: For the West, this war is another strategic challenge - like the Ukraine War. It distracts policymakers from the the EU's and US's China/Indo-Pacific policies. The war is also seriously undermining the West as the self-proclaimed upholder of the "rules-based order." War scenarios: 1. Protracted stalemate. 2. Broadened regional conflict. 3. A decisive victory. 4. A ceasefire. Implications: Scenarios 1 and 2 do not bode well for the West. Scenario 2 even has the potential to become what Barrack Obama called the 2003 invasion of Iraq, a "dumb war" with disastrous consequences. A decisive victory is unlikely for both sides; most wars in this region end not with a bang but a whimper. Pushing for a decisive Israeli victory could see the West mired in scenarios 1 or 2. The longer this war continues and the broader it gets, the bigger a gift it will be to China.... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Israel; Palästinensische Gebiete; Krieg; palästinensisch-israelischer Konflikt; China; internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen; internationale Beziehungen; Ordnungspolitik; Außenpolitik; westliche Welt; Geopolitik; Perspektive; Szenario
Klassifikation
Friedens- und Konfliktforschung, Sicherheitspolitik
internationale Beziehungen, Entwicklungspolitik
Freie Schlagwörter
Gaza-Streifen; Status und Rolle im internationalen System; Ordnungspolitische außenpolitische Interessen; Rivalität von Staaten; Westliche Industrieländer; Geoeconomics; Entwicklungsperspektive und -tendenz
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2023
Erscheinungsort
Hamburg
Seitenangabe
11 S.
Schriftenreihe
GIGA Focus Nahost, 5
DOI
https://doi.org/10.57671/gfme-23052
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet
Lizenz
Creative Commons - Namensnennung, Keine Bearbeitung 3.0