Diplomacy and artificial intelligence: reflections on practical assistance for diplomatic negotiations

Abstract

AI holds the promise of being able to analyse large amounts of data faster and more reliably than humans can. So is it also possible to use AI sys­tems to analyse information relevant to diplomatic negotiations in a way that adds significant strategic value? We explore this question through two exploratory case studies. The first examines the negotiations for a German-Austrian customs union in 1929/30. Here we show how AI systems could be used to develop a spec­trum of possible scenarios in an automated way for the purposes of strategy formation. The second case study looks at the negotiations on the so-called "cyber­crime" resolution within the framework of the United Nations (UN). In cooperation with the Federal Foreign Office (AA), the study investigates whether and in what form AI systems allow the behaviour of states in the UN General Assembly to be predicted. Based on the two case studies, we take a systematic look at further possi­bilities for using AI as a tool for diplomacy, for example, in the automated monitoring of public media around a negotiation process. Today, AI is still often prone to error and will foreseeably not be able to replace the judgement of experienced diplomats. As a supporting tool, however, AI has the potential to make an indispensable contribution to the preparation and conduct of diplomatic negotiations. German foreign policy should create the conditions to further explore the potential of AI and other methods of data analysis for the purposes of diplo­matic negotiations, develop a "foreign policy data strategy" and draw up normative guidelines for the use of AI in the context of diplomacy. (author's abstract)