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Using agent-based models to generate transformation knowledge for the German Energiewende: potentials and challenges derived from four case studies
[working paper]
Corporate Editor
Universität Bremen, Forschungszentrum Nachhaltigkeit (artec)
Abstract
The German Energiewende is a deliberate transformation of an established industrial economy towards a nearly CO2-free energy system accompanied by a phase out of nuclear energy. Its governance requires knowledge on how to steer the transition from the existing status quo to the target situation (tra... view more
The German Energiewende is a deliberate transformation of an established industrial economy towards a nearly CO2-free energy system accompanied by a phase out of nuclear energy. Its governance requires knowledge on how to steer the transition from the existing status quo to the target situation (transformation knowledge). The energy system is, however, a complex socio-technical system whose dynamics are influenced by behavioural and institutional aspects, which are badly represented by the dominant techno-economic scenario studies. In this paper we therefore investigate and identify characteristics of model studies that make agent-based modelling supportive for the generation of transformation knowledge for the Energiewende. This is done by reflecting on the experiences gained from four different applications of agent-based models. In particular, we analyse whether the studies haveimproved our understanding of policies’ impacts on the energy system, whether the knowledge derived is useful for practitioners, how valid understanding derived by the studiesis, and whether insights can be used beyond the initial case-studies. We conclude that agent-based modelling has high potential to generate transformation knowledge, but that the design of projects in which the models are developed and used is of major importance to reap this potential. Well-informed and goal-oriented stakeholder involvement and a strong collaboration between data collection and model development are crucial.... view less
Keywords
energy; energy industry; renewable energy; energy supply; economic change; climate change; technological change
Classification
Ecology, Environment
Sociology of Science, Sociology of Technology, Research on Science and Technology
Free Keywords
Energiewende; transition; transformation knowledge; agent-based model
Document language
English
Publication Year
2018
City
Bremen
Page/Pages
31 p.
Series
artec-paper, 218
ISSN
1613-4907
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications