A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems

Korotayev, Andrey; Malkov, Sergey; Grinin, Leonid

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%T A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems
%A Korotayev, Andrey
%A Malkov, Sergey
%A Grinin, Leonid
%E Grinin, Leonid
%E Korotayev, Andrey
%P 201-267
%D 2014
%I Uchitel Publishing House
%K modernization; instability; Malthusian trap; mathematical modeling; youth bulge; urbanization; Africa; demographic dynamics; demographic transition; political dynamics; political demography
%@ 978-5-7057-4223-3
%> https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-58888-5
%X The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes.
The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.
%C RUS
%C Volgograd
%G en
%9 Sammelwerksbeitrag
%W GESIS - http://www.gesis.org
%~ SSOAR - http://www.ssoar.info