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A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems
[Sammelwerksbeitrag]
Abstract The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective proces... mehr
The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes.
The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.... weniger
Klassifikation
Allgemeine Soziologie, Makrosoziologie, spezielle Theorien und Schulen, Entwicklung und Geschichte der Soziologie
Bevölkerung
Freie Schlagwörter
modernization; instability; Malthusian trap; mathematical modeling; youth bulge; urbanization; Africa; demographic dynamics; demographic transition; political dynamics; political demography
Titel Sammelwerk, Herausgeber- oder Konferenzband
History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles; Yearbook
Herausgeber
Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2014
Verlag
Uchitel Publishing House
Erscheinungsort
Volgograd
Seitenangabe
S. 201-267
ISBN
978-5-7057-4223-3
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)