A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems

Korotayev, Andrey; Malkov, Sergey; Grinin, Leonid

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@incollection{ Korotayev2014,
 title = {A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems},
 author = {Korotayev, Andrey and Malkov, Sergey and Grinin, Leonid},
 editor = {Grinin, Leonid and Korotayev, Andrey},
 year = {2014},
 booktitle = {History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles; Yearbook},
 pages = {201-267},
 address = {Volgograd},
 publisher = {Uchitel Publishing House},
 isbn = {978-5-7057-4223-3},
 urn = {https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-58888-5},
 abstract = {The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes.
The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.},
}