| dc.contributor.author | Groemling, Michael | de |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2008-12-01T11:45:00Z | de |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2012-08-29T23:08:31Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2012-08-29T23:08:31Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2002 | de |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0172-6404 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/3392 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Die wirtschaftlichen Prognosen für 2001 haben die Realität in hohem Maße verfehlt. Während ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 3% vorausgesagt wurde, wuchs das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt tatsächlich nur um 0,6%. Die Prognosen für die Jahre 1995 bis 2001 waren dennoch ziemlich genau. Der Verfasser benennt eine Reihe von Ursachen für Prognosefehler: Revision von Daten, unvorhersehbare Ereignisse, Verhaltensrückkopplungen, politische Rückkopplungen, Nachahmungsverhalten der Experten. (ICEÜbers) | de |
| dc.description.abstract | 'The economic forecasts for 2001 grossly missed reality. While forecasters estimated a growth rate of 3 per cent, real GDP actually grew by only 0.6 per cent. The analysis of forecasts in the years 1995 to 2001 shows nevertheless that they were fairly accurate. In addition, the article gives several arguments which may explain forecast errors: data revisions, unpredictable events, behavioural and political feedback and imitation behaviour of forecasters.' (author's abstract) | en |
| dc.language | en | de |
| dc.subject.ddc | Wirtschaft | de |
| dc.subject.ddc | Economics | en |
| dc.title | Evaluation and accuracy of economic forecasts | en |
| dc.title.alternative | Bewertung und Genauigkeit wirtschaftlicher Prognosen | de |
| dc.description.review | begutachtet (peer reviewed) | de |
| dc.description.review | peer reviewed | en |
| dc.source.journal | Historical Social Research | de |
| dc.source.volume | 27 | de |
| dc.publisher.country | DEU | |
| dc.source.issue | 4 | de |
| dc.subject.classoz | National Economy | en |
| dc.subject.classoz | Volkswirtschaftstheorie | de |
| dc.subject.thesoz | prognosis | en |
| dc.subject.thesoz | Validität | de |
| dc.subject.thesoz | economic development (on national level) | en |
| dc.subject.thesoz | prognostication | en |
| dc.subject.thesoz | Prognostik | de |
| dc.subject.thesoz | validity | en |
| dc.subject.thesoz | Wirtschaftsentwicklung | de |
| dc.subject.thesoz | Prognose | de |
| dc.identifier.urn | urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-33924 | de |
| dc.date.modified | 2008-12-02T11:53:00Z | de |
| dc.rights.licence | Creative Commons - Attribution 4.0 | en |
| dc.rights.licence | Creative Commons - Namensnennung 4.0 | de |
| ssoar.gesis.collection | SOLIS;ADIS | de |
| ssoar.contributor.institution | GESIS | de |
| internal.status | 3 | de |
| internal.identifier.thesoz | 10036432 | |
| internal.identifier.thesoz | 10040626 | |
| internal.identifier.thesoz | 10049626 | |
| internal.identifier.thesoz | 10036433 | |
| dc.type.stock | article | de |
| dc.type.document | journal article | en |
| dc.type.document | Zeitschriftenartikel | de |
| dc.rights.copyright | t | de |
| dc.source.pageinfo | 242-255 | |
| internal.identifier.classoz | 1090301 | |
| internal.identifier.journal | 152 | de |
| internal.identifier.document | 32 | |
| internal.identifier.ddc | 330 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.12759/hsr.27.2002.4.242-255 | |
| dc.subject.methods | descriptive study | en |
| dc.subject.methods | deskriptive Studie | de |
| dc.description.pubstatus | Published Version | en |
| dc.description.pubstatus | Veröffentlichungsversion | de |
| internal.identifier.licence | 16 | |
| internal.identifier.methods | 2 | |
| internal.identifier.pubstatus | 1 | |
| internal.identifier.review | 1 | |
| internal.check.abstractlanguageharmonizer | CERTAIN | |
| internal.check.languageharmonizer | CERTAIN_RETAINED | |
