More documents from Dohmen, Thomas; Falk, Armin; Huffman, David; Marklein, Felix; Sunde, Uwe
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Biased probability judgment: evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample
[journal article]
Dohmen, Thomas; Falk, Armin; Huffman, David; Marklein, Felix; Sunde, Uwe
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Please use the following Persistent Identifier (PID) to cite this document:http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-314229
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| Abstract | Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show that almost a third of the respondents exhibits systematically biased perceptions of probability. The findings also indicate that the observed biases are related to individual economic outcomes, which suggests potential policy relevance of our findings. |
| Classification | Methods and Techniques of Data Collection and Data Analysis, Statistical Methods, Computer Methods; Applied Psychology |
| Free Keywords | Bounded Rationality; Probability Judgment; Gambler's Fallacy; Hot Hand Fallacy; Representative Design; Long-Term Unemployment; Financial Decision Making |
| Document language | English |
| Publication Year | 2009 |
| Page/Pages | p. 903-915 |
| Journal | Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 72 (2009) 3 |
| DOI | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2009.07.014 |
| Status | Postprint; reviewed |
| Licence | PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project) |
| Document Type | journal article |
