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Biased probability judgment: evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample
[Zeitschriftenartikel]
Abstract Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show that a... mehr
Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show that almost a third of the respondents exhibits systematically biased perceptions of probability. The findings also indicate that the observed biases are related to individual economic outcomes, which suggests potential policy relevance of our findings.... weniger
Klassifikation
Erhebungstechniken und Analysetechniken der Sozialwissenschaften
angewandte Psychologie
Freie Schlagwörter
Bounded Rationality; Probability Judgment; Gambler's Fallacy; Hot Hand Fallacy; Representative Design; Long-Term Unemployment; Financial Decision Making
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2009
Seitenangabe
S. 903-915
Zeitschriftentitel
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 72 (2009) 3
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2009.07.014
Status
Postprint; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz
PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)