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Forecasting the outcome of a national election : the influence of expertise, information, and political preferences

[conference paper]

Andersson, Patric; Gschwend, Thomas; Meffert, Michael F.; Schmidt, Carsten

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Please use the following Persistent Identifier (PID) to cite this document:http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-257728

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Abstract "Five days in advance of the 2005 German national election, political experts, voters, and novices were asked to predict the outcome of the election. In an experimental manipulation, half of the non-expert sample was provided with additional poll information in the form of a figure with trend lines. The results show that (1) experts were marginally more accurate than non-experts but highly overconfident in their predictions, that (2) access to pre-election poll information improved the forecasting ability of novices, and that (3) partisan preferences biased the forecasts of voters to a small degree (projection effect)." (author's abstract)
Keywords election to the Bundestag; prognosis; election result; voter; expert; voting behavior; voter turnout; knowledge; preference; Federal Republic of Germany
Classification Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Document language English
Publication Year 2006
City Mannheim
Page/Pages 30 p.
Licence Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications
data provider This metadata entry was indexed by the Special Subject Collection Social Sciences, USB Cologne