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https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-257728
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Forecasting the outcome of a national election: the influence of expertise, information, and political preferences
[Konferenzbeitrag]
Abstract "Five days in advance of the 2005 German national election, political experts, voters, and novices were asked to predict the outcome of the election. In an experimental manipulation, half of the non-expert sample was provided with additional poll information in the form of a figure with trend lines.... mehr
"Five days in advance of the 2005 German national election, political experts, voters, and novices were asked to predict the outcome of the election. In an experimental manipulation, half of the non-expert sample was provided with additional poll information in the form of a figure with trend lines. The results show that (1) experts were marginally more accurate than non-experts but highly overconfident in their predictions, that (2) access to pre-election poll information improved the forecasting ability of novices, and that (3) partisan preferences biased the forecasts of voters to a small degree (projection effect)." (author's abstract)... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Wahlbeteiligung; Prognose; Wahlverhalten; Experte; Wähler; Wahlergebnis; Bundestagswahl; Präferenz; Wissen
Klassifikation
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2006
Erscheinungsort
Mannheim
Seitenangabe
30 S.
Lizenz
Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung
DatenlieferantDieser Metadatensatz wurde vom Sondersammelgebiet Sozialwissenschaften (USB Köln) erstellt.