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Forecasting the outcome of a national election: the influence of expertise, information, and political preferences
[conference paper]
Abstract "Five days in advance of the 2005 German national election, political experts, voters, and novices were asked to predict the outcome of the election. In an experimental manipulation, half of the non-expert sample was provided with additional poll information in the form of a figure with trend lines.... view more
"Five days in advance of the 2005 German national election, political experts, voters, and novices were asked to predict the outcome of the election. In an experimental manipulation, half of the non-expert sample was provided with additional poll information in the form of a figure with trend lines. The results show that (1) experts were marginally more accurate than non-experts but highly overconfident in their predictions, that (2) access to pre-election poll information improved the forecasting ability of novices, and that (3) partisan preferences biased the forecasts of voters to a small degree (projection effect)." (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
prognosis; voting behavior; voter turnout; knowledge; voter; preference; election to the Bundestag; Federal Republic of Germany; election result; expert
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Document language
English
Publication Year
2006
City
Mannheim
Page/Pages
30 p.
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications
Data providerThis metadata entry was indexed by the Special Subject Collection Social Sciences, USB Cologne