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More than wishful thinking : causes and consequences of voters’ electoral expectations about parties and coalitions


Meffert, Michael F.; Huber, Sascha; Gschwend, Thomas; Pappi, Franz Urban


Bitte beziehen Sie sich beim Zitieren dieses Dokumentes immer auf folgenden Persistent Identifier (PID):http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-257692

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Abstract "Accurate expectations about the outcome of elections play a central role in psychological and economic theories of voting. In the paper, three questions about voters' expectations are investigated. First, we identify and test several factors that influence the overall accuracy or quality of voters' expectations. Second, the phenomenon of 'wishful thinking' is tested and confirmed for expectations about the electoral performance of individual parties and coalitions. Finally, two mechanisms how expectations might influence voting behavior are identified and tested. Based on surveys from Austria and Germany, the results suggest that voters not only rely on expectations to avoid casting 'wasted' votes for parties without electoral chances, but that they are able to engage in fairly sophisticated strategic coalition voting." (author's abstract)
Thesaurusschlagwörter voter; expectation; election result; voting behavior; party; coalition; knowledge; level of education; preference; Federal Republic of Germany; Austria
Klassifikation politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Methode empirisch
Sprache Dokument Englisch
Publikationsjahr 2009
Erscheinungsort Mannheim
Seitenangabe 36 S.
Lizenz Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung
Datenlieferant Dieser Metadatensatz wurde vom Sondersammelgebiet Sozialwissenschaften (USB Köln) erstellt.