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More than wishful thinking : causes and consequences of voters’ electoral expectations about parties and coalitions

[working paper]

Meffert, Michael F.; Huber, Sascha; Gschwend, Thomas; Pappi, Franz Urban

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Please use the following Persistent Identifier (PID) to cite this document:http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-257692

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Abstract "Accurate expectations about the outcome of elections play a central role in psychological and economic theories of voting. In the paper, three questions about voters' expectations are investigated. First, we identify and test several factors that influence the overall accuracy or quality of voters' expectations. Second, the phenomenon of 'wishful thinking' is tested and confirmed for expectations about the electoral performance of individual parties and coalitions. Finally, two mechanisms how expectations might influence voting behavior are identified and tested. Based on surveys from Austria and Germany, the results suggest that voters not only rely on expectations to avoid casting 'wasted' votes for parties without electoral chances, but that they are able to engage in fairly sophisticated strategic coalition voting." (author's abstract)
Keywords voter; expectation; election result; voting behavior; party; coalition; knowledge; level of education; preference; Federal Republic of Germany; Austria
Classification Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Method empirical
Document language English
Publication Year 2009
City Mannheim
Page/Pages 36 p.
Licence Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications
data provider This metadata entry was indexed by the Special Subject Collection Social Sciences, USB Cologne