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More than wishful thinking: causes and consequences of voters’ electoral expectations about parties and coalitions
[working paper]
Abstract "Accurate expectations about the outcome of elections play a central role in psychological
and economic theories of voting. In the paper, three questions about voters' expectations are
investigated. First, we identify and test several factors that influence the overall accuracy or
quality of voters'... view more
"Accurate expectations about the outcome of elections play a central role in psychological
and economic theories of voting. In the paper, three questions about voters' expectations are
investigated. First, we identify and test several factors that influence the overall accuracy or
quality of voters' expectations. Second, the phenomenon of 'wishful thinking' is tested and
confirmed for expectations about the electoral performance of individual parties and coalitions.
Finally, two mechanisms how expectations might influence voting behavior are identified and
tested. Based on surveys from Austria and Germany, the results suggest that voters not only rely
on expectations to avoid casting 'wasted' votes for parties without electoral chances, but that
they are able to engage in fairly sophisticated strategic coalition voting." (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
voting behavior; knowledge; party; Austria; voter; preference; expectation; Federal Republic of Germany; election result; coalition; level of education
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Method
empirical
Document language
English
Publication Year
2009
City
Mannheim
Page/Pages
36 p.
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications
Data providerThis metadata entry was indexed by the Special Subject Collection Social Sciences, USB Cologne