Национальная технологическая инициатива: оценка перспектив технологического лидерства России

Abstract

There were analysed scientific-technological solutions which are suggested to be included in the National Technological Initiative "New Production technologies" (NSI-NPT). Considering that Russian President set a target to become a technological leader and conquer the noticeable niches of global products and services markets using technologies, the attention has been drawn to the fact that readiness to influence markets of high-technological products is defined by the shares of patents, received by the residents of a particular country in the field of considered technologies. There are demonstrated results of patent analysis of six new production technologies. It is shown that the fight for emerging markets will take place between three countries: China, USA and Republic of Korea. Special attention is drawn to periods of change of the technological leader. It is noted that the battle for technological leadership, commonly, unfolds within 5-7 years period of intensive development of technological direction in 2-3 countries. As key factors for achieving leadership on new technological markets there are named the following factors: creation of a national body of specialists, owners of new competencies, as well as presence of middle-sized technological companies in the country, which are able to transform these competencies into production technologies of full cycle. The main risks preventing from reaching the targets of NSI-NPT include a low share of patents belonging to Russian citizens in the worldwide patent community against a backdrop of high share of patents granted by Russian Federation to nonresidents and absence of technological companies, able to fulfill the role of a development driver of National Production Technologies.