Understanding the Electoral Participation Gap: A Study of Racialized Minorities in Canada

Abstract

Racialized minorities constitute an increasingly substantial segment of modern electorates in Western democracies, in part driven by immigration. Analyzing data from the 2021 Canadian Election Study (N = 9,496) and yearly Democracy Checkup surveys between 2020 and 2023 (N = 26,908), we explore the significance of racial identity as a determinant of voter turnout. Our findings reveal stark disparities in electoral participation between the most racialized minority groups in Canada and the White majority. Except for Latino identifiers, Indigenous, Asian, Black, and Arab-identifying respondents all exhibit lower voting rates, with Black voters facing the most significant gap, nearly 16 percentage points below their White counterparts. The gap is particularly prominent among second-generation racialized Canadians, suggesting that newcomers to Canada exhibit relatively high levels of engagement compared to their children. Next, we explore three key individual factors that may contribute to the gap: differences in socioeconomics, psychological engagement, and mobilization and community embeddedness. We employ a linear decomposition technique to assess the contributions of these factors to the majority–minority participation gap. Our analysis underscores the potency of socio-economic and psychological models in explaining minority under-participation in the Canadian context. The mobilization and community embeddedness model, however, exhibits weak explanatory power. Despite these insights, a substantial portion of the participation differentials remains unexplained, suggesting the necessity for novel perspectives to understand gaps in the electoral participation of racialized electors.