The Great Leap? China's Ballistic Missile Programme: A Technical Report

Abstract

Since its inception in the 1950s, China's missile programme has undergone significant development. This research report traces the evolution of China's ballistic missile capabilities over a period of more than 70 years, drawing primarily on open-source information to provide a technical analysis of the available data. Additionally, it offers a concise overview of the Chinese missile industry, which remains highly state-controlled, as well as an assessment of the current state of China's missile forces, including operational systems, force levels, and deployment locations. This analysis highlights how, over decades - initially with Soviet assistance and later through independent advancements - China has leveraged long-range missile systems as a tool to project threats. Particularly in recent years, China has intensified its investment in missile research, development, and production. This is reflected in its notable expansion of medium- and long-range systems and the comprehensive modernisation of its existing arsenal. This report offers a comprehensive overview of the current state of China's missile programme. It aims to shed light on its technical foundations, thus enabling a better assessment of its capabilities, intentions, and underlying strategies, as well as future courses of action and implications for the international community.