Water allocation in transboundary river systems in times of climate change

Abstract

Rivers are the lifelines for large shares of the global population Now climate change adds uncertainty to water availability in many transboundary river systems, making it hard or impossible for some countries to comply with existing treaties and affecting societal stability. In our research within CliSAP, we have developed a theoretical framework for the assessment of water conflict and cooperation in times of climate change. The framework links environmental change to altered water availability. This in turn has effects on individual human wellbeing in the riparian countries. One case study that has been our particular focus is the Nile River Basin. Results indicate that Egypt's water allocation goals can not be met in a business-as-usual scenario, increasing the likelihood of the downstream countries engaging in conflicting strategies with their upstream neighbors.