How does path dependence affect the climate change-conflict nexus?

Abstract

In sociology, path dependence can be defined as a self-reinforcing process with the tendency towards a lock-in. This concept can be applied to the climate-conflict nexus to assess how path dependence, this particular characteristic of a process, affects the complex potential causalities of climate-induced conflict. Does path dependence enhance the conflict potential through butterfly effects or does it rather pacify by increasing conformity? The nature of climate change-induced conflict is analyzed with an integrative framework that is based on a review of peer-reviewed related case studies. Using the methodology of mathematical sociology, a complex causal chain is drawn to reflect the influence of path dependence in the situation of climate change-induced conflict. Sociological conflict theories are used to depict, in which way and to what extent path dependence may or may not influence the societal reaction to climate change.