America's 2024 Election and Europe's Middle East Dilemma

Abstract

The 2024 US presidential election will recalibrate American foreign policy in the Middle East amidst ongoing regional retrenchment. Though taking different approaches, both major presidential candidates advocate strategies that favour maintaining security engagements while (further) reducing military commitments - a strategic shift that will carry significant implications for Europe. The October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel has reshaped US election discourse, thrusting Middle Eastern foreign policy to the forefront and influencing each candidate's approach. Biden has balanced support for traditional allies with outreach to regional actors, while Trump has proposed taking a more assertive stance on Iran and leaving a lighter military footprint. Harris currently faces the challenge of developing a foreign policy standpoint that ensures regional security while addressing diplomatic concerns. Regardless of the election outcome, American leadership remains critical to Middle East security, especially vis-à-vis countering Iran and supporting allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, the United States must balance its ongoing military retrenchment with projecting power and cultivating regional alliances amid growing competition from China and Russia. Europe must take proactive steps to assert and protect its influence in the Middle East, rather than waiting to adjust to shifts in US engagement in the region.