Mid-Term Elections: Brazil's Far Right Battles for Bolsonaro's Legacy

Abstract

As Brazil prepares for mid-term elections on 6 October 2024, far-right leaders are competing for leadership. All eyes are on São Paulo, where the right's "old guard" candidate faces the rise of a young, extremist YouTuber. Polls show a three-way tie between these two and the socialist left-wing candidate, backed by President Lula. The result will be a harbinger for politics in post-Lula Brazil. With 12 million people, São Paulo is more populous than many Latin American countries. In Brazil it serves as a microcosm of national politics, and leadership of the city is a key springboard for national ambitions. The recent far-right resurgence confirms the eclipsing of traditional conservative parties over the past decade. The new far right is stronger, better connected via social media and evangelical churches, and finds support from the poorest to the richest alike. Both candidates fighting for the extremist legacy in São Paulo have a military police officer as their running mate. They join the 6,600 candidates from the public security realm and armed forces running for office nationwide. Security remains a pressing issue mobilising voters. Across the political spectrum, security proposals are similar: expanding armed personnel. Irrespective of their ideological differences, the three main candidates tied for office in São Paulo are all accused of colluding with organised crime. While some fear Brazil is becoming a mafia state, like other business groups, crime syndicates will seek to influence government decisions - in their case, in favour of illegal economies.