Democratic Breakthrough or New Partial Reform Equilibrium? Ukraine's Institutional Development in the Third Year of the Large-Scale Invasion

Abstract

Ukraine is being praised by its international partners for delivering on reform recommendations, echoing the aspirations of its people in this way as it assumedly moves forwards on its path towards Europe. This is one of the versions of the country that faces two trajectories regarding its institutional development amidst the large-scale Russian invasion. One path shows compelling evidence for shattering the old partial reform equilibrium dominated by oligarchs, which happened through the war and an acceleration of reforms incentivised by Ukraine's EU candidate status. In this way, the country has made noticeable progress towards becoming a European rule of law state. Evidence for this scenario includes the strengthening of anticorruption institutions such as the NABU and SAPO, which has resulted in high-profile corruption cases against once 'untouchable' officials. However, the other scenario portrays a country that risks becoming stuck in a new partial reform equilibrium. Although some reforms have been implemented, there are concerns about the concentration of economic, media, political and judicial power in the hands of the president's inner circle. This circle may be attempting to 'out oligarch the oligarchs', undermining large-scale anticorruption efforts through control over key institutions. While demonstrating some progress, Ukraine must finalise all necessary reforms to avoid this new two-class system - the rule of law for the masses with exceptions for a tiny elite. Therefore, domestic and external stakeholders should create incentives to use this unique window of opportunity at this critical juncture in Ukraine's European journey.