The EU De‐Risking of Energy Dependencies: Towards a New Clean Energy Geopolitical Order?

Abstract

The mounting geopolitical tensions and rivalries between the world's major economies transform the goals and instruments of domestic and external policies. Industrial strategies of leading global powers call for technological decoupling, strategic autonomy, and the de-risking of dependencies in critical value chains. Economic interdependencies become a liability and de-globalisation tendencies come to the fore. The energy sector is not exempted from these trends, leading even to the weaponisation of energy in some cases. In that vein, this article explores the character and directions of EU international energy engagement through the geoeconomic lens. Taking inspiration from literature on energy security and the geopolitics of energy transition, the article theorises the concept of de-risking in energy to investigate how the EU is positioning itself as a power while ensuring security and competitiveness. Looking at three illustrative examples of the energy transition - supply of natural gas, access to energy-critical minerals, and international hydrogen markets - the article shows that EU de-risking means not only diversifying suppliers but, most notably, constructing new economic, sustainable, and potentially long-lasting international relations. As a result, despite the deep geopoliticisation of energy and the new global "disorder," the EU's de-risking has the potential to reshape international relations by forging new partnerships or reconfiguring existing ones, thus establishing a new economic order driven by clean energy while offering new economic opportunities to create local value chains and decarbonise economies in third countries.