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Power relations in Sudan after the fall of Bashir: from revolution to war
Machtbeziehungen in Sudan nach dem Fall Bashirs: von der Revolution zum Krieg
[working paper]
Corporate Editor
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract
War has raged in Sudan since April 2023 following fundamental changes in the political balance of power in recent years. The previously dominant security sector is deeply divided and the once weakly organised civil society has mobilised. Competition within the security sector made it possible to for... view more
War has raged in Sudan since April 2023 following fundamental changes in the political balance of power in recent years. The previously dominant security sector is deeply divided and the once weakly organised civil society has mobilised. Competition within the security sector made it possible to form a civil-military transitional government. Yet the continued rise to power of the Rapid Support Forces increased the risk of armed conflict, especially after the coup in 2021. Since Bashir's fall in 2019, the security forces have twice tried in vain to establish sole military rule. The civil-military transitional government also failed because the military still had considerable power resources at its disposal. Sudan’s political elite contributed to this outcome by paying too little attention to the establishment of transitional institutions and too much attention to its own visibility. International actors who wanted to strengthen Sudan's transition process could have repelled the security forces more decisively instead of reflexively accepting them. Many international as well as Sudanese efforts suffered from the fact that they viewed the inclusion or exclusion of the security forces as a binary issue. A new non-inclusive, elitist deal with Sudan's violent entrepreneurs will not bring peace if there are no civilian forces at the table. Instead, Sudan's best chance lies in the social capital of its citizens' voluntary commitment to humanitarian aid, democracy and local reconciliation. (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
Sudan; revolution; political development; security sector; war; coup d'etat; paramilitary group; power struggle; civil war; democratization; civil-military cooperation; Arab countries; East Africa
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Verhältnis Militär - Gesellschaft; Sicherheitsorgane; Nichtstaatliche bewaffnete Gruppe; Streitkräfte/militärische Verbände; Innenpolitischer Konflikt; Konflikteskalation; Militärputsch; Übergangsregierung; Politische Elite; Übergang zwischen politischen Systemen; Internationaler Akteur; National Congress Party (Sudan); Bashir, Omar Hasan Ahmad al-
Document language
English
Publication Year
2024
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
34 p.
Series
SWP Research Paper, 5/2024
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2024RP05
ISSN
1863-1053
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications