Shifting Sands, Unmoved Mountains? Relations between Armenia and Iran since the Second Karabakh War

Abstract

This paper discusses the relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Islamic Republic of Iran across three inter-related dimensions: first, the presence of the prominent Armenian community in Iran; second, economic ties between the two countries; and third, the role of Tehran within regional political dynamics. It is the lattermost point which has seen substantial shifts since the end of the Second Karabakh War in 2020, especially with the shared perceived threats arising from the prospect of a 'Zangezour/Zangezur Corridor' connecting mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan/Nakhichevan. In this context, the foreign policy orientations in Yerevan mainly directed towards Moscow have been shattered as a result of the war and its aftermath. Relations with Tehran, by contrast, have remained steady, developing as one of many in a complex of factors both in Armenia's re-pivoting and the ongoing changes to geopolitical power structures in the South Caucasus.