The Donbas Dilemma: Examining Russia's Path to Full-Scale Intervention

Abstract

This article delves into the complex evolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, focusing on the dynamics of the political, economic and institutional situation in the Russian-occupied territories during the Donbas War (2014-2022) and their far-reaching implications for Russia and Ukraine. All attempts to reintegrate those territories with Ukraine through the Minsk Process failed. By 2022, the occupied Donbas territories were de-facto economically, politically, culturally, and institutionally integrated with Russia. As a result, Russia found itself trapped in a perplexing predicament. It could not de-jure integrate the Donbas territories without significant reputational and economic losses. Yet it was equally unable to relinquish them, even as it became clear that they would not help to establish Russian control over Ukraine. As a result, Russia found itself in a situation in which attacking seemed like a viable option to overcome a deadlock.