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The Impact of Terrorism on Fertility: Evidence From Women of Childbearing Age in Pakistan
[journal article]
Abstract
Direct and indirect exposure to terrorist attacks can have a significant impact on major life decisions, including the choice of whether to have a child. This study aims to investigate how terrorist attacks affect fertility. By pooling data from three years of cross-sectional surveys conducted betwe... view more
Direct and indirect exposure to terrorist attacks can have a significant impact on major life decisions, including the choice of whether to have a child. This study aims to investigate how terrorist attacks affect fertility. By pooling data from three years of cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2010 and 2015 by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, our findings reveal a positive correlation between terrorist attacks and fertility among women of childbearing age in Pakistan. Specifically, the probability of giving birth two years following a terrorist attack in one’s home district, all else equal, is 64 percent, compared to the probability of a woman not giving birth two years following a terrorist attack, which is 36 percent. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates that persistent terrorist attacks, that is, domestic and non-suicide incidents, result in higher probabilities of giving birth during a particular year. Conversely, less common and more prominent terrorist attacks - transnational and suicide incidents – result in lower probabilities of giving birth during a particular year. Additionally, we find that women from above-average-income households, those with higher education levels, older mothers, and those residing in rural areas are more likely to adjust their fertility upwards in response to terrorist attacks.... view less
Keywords
Pakistan; terrorism; fertility; number of children; South Asia
Classification
Population Studies, Sociology of Population
Document language
English
Publication Year
2023
Page/Pages
p. 685-700
Journal
Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 48 (2023)
DOI
https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2023-27
ISSN
1869-8999
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed