Geopolitics of Infrastructure and Connectivity in the South Caucasus: The Case of Armenia and Azerbaijan

Abstract

Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 and the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in autumn 2020 have changed the power and security balance in the South Caucasus. Both events have had a strong impact on connectivity and infrastructure in the region and beyond. As a result, the role of the South Caucasus in connecting Asia and Europe, as well as Russia and the Middle East, will increase. Simultaneously, the imbalance between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh and the confrontation between Russia and the West will undermine cooperation and connectivity in the region. Rather than serving the interests of the societies and countries of the South Caucasus, the weaponisation of corridors and infrastructure is embedded in processes of geopolitical and power competition.