What If Multilateral Trade Cooperation Is Dead?

Abstract

On January 1, 2030, a cold fog seeps over the headquarters of the World Trade Organization from Lake Geneva. This day should mark the WTO's 35th birthday, but there are no big celebrations. The halls of the stately building, which once buzzed with activity, are empty. The WTO, which for decades ensured rule-based trade and held power politics at bay, is all but dead. China and the United States have long abandoned the organization and the EU recently followed. This scenario not only illustrates where forsaking multilateral cooperation can lead but also provides context for better navigating today’s challenging geo-economic environment.