The Brexit learning effect? Brexit negotiations and attitudes towards leaving the EU beyond the UK

Abstract

Britain's decision to leave the EU did not go unnoticed by the remaining EU states. Previous studies have shown that the assessment of the Brexit decision shortly after the referendum took place influenced the voting behaviour of citizens in a hypothetical EU referendum held in their country. This research note goes one step further by examining whether citizens' willingness to leave the EU changed during the following three years of prolonged Brexit negotiations. To this end, Eurobarometer and ESS data are used to descriptively trace public votes in hypothetical referendums on EU membership over time. In addition, a cross-sectional analysis of Eurobarometer data collected two years after the referendum finds that citizens' assessment of the British Brexit experience is strongly associated with attitudes towards EU membership. If Brexit is seen as the right decision for Britain, withdrawal of one's own country from the EU is seen as more attractive although reassuringly for the EU, most people in the EU do not hold this belief.