Effets des conflits armés sur la production agricole dans les pays en développement: une vérification empirique sur les données du Cameroun

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural value added, using the example of the conflict in the Anglophone and Northern regions of Cameroon. The authors examine this relationship using data from FAO (FAOSTAT, 2022) and the World Bank (WDI, 2022) for the period 2000 to 2022. The econometric results show that the conflict variable, whose impact is the purpose of this exercise, has a negative sign and is statistically significant at the 1% level. The coefficient indicates that the years of conflict lead to a negative variation in agricultural production of sixteen percentage points, corresponding to a total estimated loss of nearly 4615 billion CFA francs over the eight years of conflict (2014-2022), or an average of 576.9 billion CFA francs per year. If conflict is a fundamental cause of the decline in agricultural value-added in Cameroon, then policies aimed at defusing and preventing conflict and promoting peace are an essential means of agricultural recovery, improving food security, and reducing rural poverty in Cameroon.