On the way to becoming a society of downward mobility? Intergenerational occupational mobility in seven West German birth cohorts (1944-1978)

Abstract

Many studies on social mobility use operationalizations of social positions that do not take occupational upgrading into account. In order to estimate social mobility patterns net of occupational upgrading, I propose an operationalization involving administrative data to measure social positions by applying a percentile approach. Based on this measurement I calculate absolute and relative intergenerational mobility patterns. Using this operationalization, I aim to answer the question of how far intergenerational mobility patterns have changed over time in West Germany. Therefore, I analyze the occupational data of 7,416 38- to 42-year-olds born between 1944 and 1978 belonging to the sixth starting cohort of the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS). Compared to previous studies, I observe significantly higher rates of downward mobility. However, I do not find any cohort trends in absolute mobility rates and do not detect any changes in social fluidity patterns. I therefore conclude that there are no cohort trends in absolute or relative intergenerational mobility in West Germany, implying that it is not on its way to becoming a society of downward mobility. In contrast to previous studies, my results indicate high social fluidity and no changes in relative mobility over time. Hence, the picture of a rigid German social structure should be reconsidered.