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Russia's nuclear threats in the war against Ukraine: consequences for the international order, NATO and Germany
Russlands nukleare Drohgebärden im Krieg gegen die Ukraine: Folgen für die internationale Ordnung, die Nato und Deutschland
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract
Any conflict with a nuclear power like Russia carries the risk that nuclear weapons could be used, and President Vladimir Putin is aggressively exploiting such concerns. With its nuclear threats, the Kremlin is moving away from Russia’s doctrine that ascribes a protective role to its nuclear arsenal... view more
Any conflict with a nuclear power like Russia carries the risk that nuclear weapons could be used, and President Vladimir Putin is aggressively exploiting such concerns. With its nuclear threats, the Kremlin is moving away from Russia’s doctrine that ascribes a protective role to its nuclear arsenal. In this way, Moscow aims not only to deter Western governments from providing more substantial support to Ukraine, but also to intimidate the Western public. However, as long as NATO does not intervene directly in Ukraine and the Russian regime does not feel existentially threatened, both intentional and unintentional nuclear use remain extremely unlikely. Nevertheless, Moscow’s nuclear threats still entail significant negative consequences. If Russia succeeds in using nuclear deterrence to shield an offensive conventional war, this could further destabilise Europe and the global security order. (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
Ukraine; war; Russia; threat; EU; NATO; security policy; international security; Europe
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Kriegsverlauf; Nuklearer Schlag; Außenpolitische Drohung/Provokation; Folgenabschätzung; Internationale Ordnung; Regionale internationale Sicherheit
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
7 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 29/2022
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2022C29
ISSN
2747-5107
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications