The Right Time for the Right Change in Afghanistan

Abstract

Since the toppling of the Taliban regime in late 2001, Afghanistan has been experiencing a democratic centralized governance system established jointly by the Afghan elites and the international community. It was hoped that the centralized system would overcome the ethnically motivated problems, stabilize the country, and strengthen institution-building. However, it seems that the system has not been very successful in containing the issue of ethnic politics and bringing stability. The country is likely to witness new changes in the political and social dimensions after a possible peace deal with the Taliban. While such a deal is likely to end the war with the Taliban, it might also spark new social disputes and problems. As has been asked by Thomas Barfield, "how you can compromise with the Taliban if whoever controls Kabul sets the rules." Taliban, as a conservative fundamentalist religious group, will with all certainty not accept all or even most of the democratic values gained in the past years, and the liberal parts of society presumably intends to object the strict rules and regulations that the Taliban are likely to demand. Therefore, to avoid possible conflicts, a form of post-peace deal system has to be designed in such a way that all segments of society are able to live the way they want. Such a system has to be decentralized in that whoever controls Kabul must not set all the rules, except at the national level. The solution this policy brief suggests is to decentralize Afghanistan via a federal model in which the people feel self-governed and set the rules for themselves at the local level while also obeying the rules set by the national government for the sake of national issues.