The Fog of War and Power Dynamics in Russia's Elite: Defections and Purges, or Simply Wishful Thinking?

Abstract

Certainly, one month into the war, it is far too soon to draw far-flung conclusions about domestic outcomes for the Putin regime. The war is definitely not going according to plan, and early monitoring of elite dynamics suggests that some behind-the-scenes turmoil and minor cracks in the elite can indeed be discerned. But as of the time of writing, there appears to be no indication of immediate danger either to Putin’s rule or to the regime as a whole.