Trilateral Arms Control? Perspectives from Washington, Moscow, and Beijing

Abstract

With the end of the INF Treaty in 2019, trilateral arms control - meaning arms control between the United States, Russia, and China - has gained center stage. Only shortly after the U.S. withdrawal, U.S. President Trump declared that he wants a new nuclear pact to be signed by both Russia and China. Other U.S. administration officials have set the goal of including China in a future follow-on framework to the New START agreement, which expires in February 2021. Then again, could trilateral arms control be possible at all? What would be necessary conditions? Why should Washington, Moscow, and Beijing engage in an uncertain endeavor that promises to significantly affect their strategic relationships? The authors of this study address those and other questions.