Как глобальное старение будет влиять на темпы научно-технического прогресса и изменение современной модели потребления

Abstract

In the article the authors make an attempt to demonstrate in what way the global ageing and resulting transition to the model of an elderly society may influence the rates and directions of the scientific and technological advance in the nearest 80-100 years as well as how this impact will vary at different stages of the defined period. In the nearest two-three decades it will be the ageing of society that will become a driving force of transformations, reforms and accelerated technological innovations. This is promoted by the increasing volume of accumulated money in social and pension funds and increasing demand for medical and rehabilitative technologies. Thus, at least until the middle of the present century and probably until its last third part the ageing will hardly hamper technological or other development, and on the contrary together with the Cybernetic revolution and the sixth technological mode it will accelerate it. However, later the society’s ageing along with improved planning opportunities will support the society’s transition to a slower and smoother development (i.e. the much spoken sustainable development) and by the end of the current and the beginning of the 22nd century it will probably cause the slowing down of scientific and technological development.