Assessing the Political and Social Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis in Latin America

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is testing the societies of the world's most unequal continent, where many depend on informal work for their livelihood. Social-distancing measures directly affect their livelihoods, and make immediate social assistance imperative. The crisis is also testing political leadership, as some presidents are emerging as strong, unifying leaders, while others flounder, in a continent where historically trust in formal institutions is low. Decisive leadership has proven crucial for implementing wide-ranging lockdowns, and for the immediate commitment to social assistance. The presidents of Argentina and Peru stand out as examples of fast and coordinated responses. The potential abuse of extraordinary powers raises concerns for the medium run. In Chile and Bolivia, governments struggling with legitimacy after last year's massive protests have had to postpone a constitutional convention vote in the former and presidential elections in the latter. Many governments have quickly promised social assistance. An enormous economic rescue package in Chile stands out for its stinginess towards the most vulnerable. Where populist presidents from the right (Brazil) or left (Mexico) deny the seriousness of the pandemic, subnational and other authorities seek to fill the leadership vacuum - but policy implementation is harmed. The heaviest price will be paid by the most vulnerable. Latin America will suffer from post-crisis external shocks. With little aid coming from the United States or Europe, China emerges as a key hope for shipments of face masks, test kits, and protective gear. As COVID spreads - with higher or flatter curves - health systems will struggle to treat the severely affected. Lockdowns will be differentially respected, as promises of emergency social assistance need to be immediately delivered. Where the executive uses the moment at hand for narrow political gains, sharp political conflict is likely to ensue. Multilateral initiatives to secure social protection for vulnerable households in the region are needed.