Uganda: No More Pro-poor Growth?

Abstract

This article explores changing growth regimes in Uganda, from pro-poor growth in the 1990s to growth without poverty reduction, actually even with a slight increase in poverty, after 2000. Not surprisingly, it finds that good agricultural performance is the key determinant of direct pro-poor growth in the 1990s, while lower agricultural growth is the root cause of the recent increase in poverty. At the same time, after 2000 low agricultural growth appears to have induced important employment shifts out of agriculture, which have dampened the increase in poverty. The article also assesses the indirect form of pro-poor growth by analysing the incidence of public spending and the tax system, and finds that indirect pro-poor growth has been achieved to only a limited extent.