The World - an Old-Age Home

Abstract

Africa is commonly portrayed as the driver of a global "population explosion." The new publication Empty Planet (2019) contests this prevailing view. Worldwide, it argues, the peak of the population increase will soon be reached and declining fertility will be the real problem for humanity, potentially in Africa too. The book's thesis has received a great deal of attention. Rightly so? It's the prevailing opinion: The world population will have increased to 11 billion by the turn of the century. Empty Planet gives minority opinions a platform. In 30 years the growth will tip, and the ageing population will become a significant problem around the world. In reality the authors are using previously known data, focusing only on the most optimistic population trends. And the most unpredictable element is how the African continent will develop. Will the global trends reach Africa as well, and if so, when? The elephant in the room is the European fear of migration. Their development policy is promoting a new incentive to convince African leaders to invest more in family planning: the promise of a demographic dividend. At the same time, more developed countries are trying to do the opposite: push up the fertility rate. They are failing. Furthermore, there is some food for thought. Why do almost all societies ultimately reach a fertility rate below the point of sustainability? How will shrinking populations affect individual societies and the power play of nations? Societies open to immigration may be able to cushion potential negative impacts. It's worth looking more closely at the statistics on fertility rates: Most people will be surprised to see that fertility rates have almost collapsed in dozens of countries – and not just industrialised nations. There are impressive figures from Africa as well. Population growth is predicted to come to a peak at the end of this century, when the world's fertility rates fall below reproduction. Whether the population growth culminates at 11 billion by 2100 or whether the tipping point is reached earlier depends on Africa. Shrinking populations in many other parts of the world may result in a shift in the international power play and economic difficulties in financing countries' social infrastructure. Societies open to immigration will do better than those that are closed and isolated.